Track 04Module 6 of 610 sources
Learning from the best: letters, memos and cycles
Absorb how proven investors think about risk, cycles and position size.
Key ideas
- Risk is the probability of permanent loss, not volatility. It is highest when it feels lowest.
- You cannot predict a cycle's turn, but you can know roughly where you are in it and lean accordingly.
- The largest returns come from concentrating when conviction and liquidity line up, and from changing your mind fast.
- Read primary sources. Letters and memos teach judgement in a way summaries do not.
Start hereWatch or read these first. They carry the core idea.
Report
Berkshire Hathaway Shareholder Letters
Berkshire Hathaway
Every shareholder letter since 1977, free. Start with any year of a market crisis.
Report
Howard Marks Memos
Oaktree Capital
Memos on risk and cycles. Read the ones written at market extremes.
How to Think About Risk with Howard Marks
Video · Oaktree · 36:11
A short series on how to think about risk.
Hard Lessons: Stan Druckenmiller: Invest, then investigate
Video · Morgan Stanley · 28:25
On liquidity, concentration and acting before you are sure.
CoreThe standard references. Work through them once the idea is clear.
Howard Marks: Mastering the Market Cycle (Milken Institute - 2019)
Video · Oaktree · 1:29:21
A talk on judging where we are in the market cycle.
Book
Book
Stan Druckenmiller | Podcast | In Good Company | Norges Bank Investment Management
Video · Norges Bank Investment Management · 51:56
A long interview on macro investing and mistakes.
Data
Dataroma: superinvestor 13F portfolios
Dataroma
What well-known investors hold, from their quarterly filings.
Go deeperResearch, primary sources and data for when you want the detail.
Financial Markets (2011) with Robert Shiller
Playlist · YaleCourses · 23 lessons
A Yale course on how financial markets and institutions work.
Practice
Read one Berkshire letter and one Oaktree memo from 2008. List three things each said that would have been hard to act on at the time.
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Where this leads