UnderstandMacro
Macro
The price of money, the supply of money, and the state of growth and inflation. US data comes from the Treasury and FRED. India and the rest come from national releases. Read the curve first, then liquidity, then the real economy.
NowA month agoStart of year
The 10-year yield is +24 bp against the 2-year, from +42 bp a month ago and +72 bp at the start of the year. The curve is flattening. Tenors are spaced evenly, not by time.
Rates and the curveEach tile shows the latest value, the change, and about three months of history.
US 2-year yield
4.73%
−0.07 pts in a month+1.15 pts in a year
US 10-year yield
4.98%
−0.26 pts in a month+0.85 pts in a year
10-year minus 2-year
0.24 pts
−0.18 pts in a month−0.28 pts in a year
10-year minus 3-month
0.78 pts
−0.17 pts in a month+0.65 pts in a year
10-year real yield
2.78%
−0.13 pts in a month+0.94 pts in a year
10-year breakeven inflation
2.24%
−0.09 pts in a month−0.03 pts in a year
Fed funds rate
3.88%
0.00 pts in a month+0.01 pts in a year
30-year mortgage rate
7.11%
−0.29 pts in a month+0.89 pts in a year
Liquidity and creditLearn the plumbing →
Fed net liquidity
$5.84 tn
−0.5% in a month+4.0% in a year
Fed balance sheet
$6.76 tn
+0.2% in a month+2.8% in a year
Reverse repo facility
$0.25 bn
−9.1% in a month−95.8% in a year
Treasury cash balance
$914 bn
+3.9% in a month−2.8% in a year
High-yield credit spread
3.30 pts
+0.19 pts in a month+0.28 pts in a year
Financial conditions index
-0.46
+0.03 in a month+0.05 in a year
Broad dollar index
121.9
+0.5% in a month+0.2% in a year
Inflation and jobs
CPI inflation, year on year
4.08%
+0.06 pts in a month+1.06 pts in a year
Core CPI, year on year
2.87%
+0.08 pts in a month−0.15 pts in a year
Unemployment rate
4.10%
−0.10 pts in a month−0.30 pts in a year
Initial jobless claims
200K
+1.0% in a month−12.3% in a year
| India | Last | Before | As of |
|---|---|---|---|
| GDP Annual Growth Rate | 7.80% | 7.80% | Jun/26 |
| GDP Growth Rate | 1.80% | 2.10% | Jun/26 |
| Inflation Rate | 6.09% | 5.54% | Oct/26 |
| Food Inflation | 8.94% | 7.74% | Oct/26 |
| Interest Rate | 5.50% | 5.25% | Oct/26 |
| Unemployment Rate | 5.00% | 5.00% | Sep/26 |
| Manufacturing PMI | 54.70 | 55.10 | Oct/26 |
| Services PMI | 55.80 | 55.20 | Oct/26 |
| Composite PMI | 56.20 | 55.90 | Oct/26 |
| Industrial Production | 6.70% | 8.00% | Sep/26 |
| Balance of Trade USD Billion | -39.88 | -30.21 | Oct/26 |
| Current Account to GDP % of GDP | -0.60 | -0.60 | Dec/25 |
| Government Budget % of GDP | -4.40 | -4.75 | Dec/25 |
| Government Debt to GDP % of GDP | 81.85 | 81.13 | Dec/25 |
| Foreign Exchange Reserves USD Million | 717,060 | 719,750 | Oct/26 |
| Currency | 94.38 | 94.03 | Nov/26 |
| Consumer Confidence | 87.90 | 88.30 | Sep/26 |
| Bank Lending Rate | 8.96% | 8.96% | Oct/26 |
| Loan Growth | 18.20% | 19.40% | Oct/26 |
| Money Supply M3 INR Billion | 337,665 | 330,674 | Sep/26 |
| Car Registrations Units | 454,574 | 439,309 | Sep/26 |
| Total Vehicle Sales Units | 385,764 | 374,056 | Sep/26 |
| Cash Reserve Ratio | 3.00% | 3.00% | Oct/26 |
| Reverse Repo Rate | 3.35% | 3.35% | Oct/26 |
| Fiscal Expenditure INR Tens of Million | 2,549,835 | 2,077,958 | Sep/26 |
| Exports USD Billion | 49.47 | 44.40 | Oct/26 |
| Imports USD Billion | 89.35 | 74.61 | Oct/26 |
| Crude Oil Production BBL/D/1K | 551.0 | 561.0 | Jul/26 |
| Business Confidence | 126.0 | 111.0 | Dec/26 |
| Producer Prices Change | 11.39% | 9.81% | Sep/26 |
| Government Bond 10Y | 7.32% | · | latest |
| United States | Last | Before | As of |
|---|---|---|---|
| GDP Annual Growth Rate | 3.40% | 2.20% | Sep/26 |
| GDP Growth Rate | 3.40% | 2.20% | Sep/26 |
| Inflation Rate | 3.70% | 3.40% | Sep/26 |
| Core Inflation Rate | 2.60% | 2.40% | Sep/26 |
| Food Inflation | 2.50% | 2.70% | Sep/26 |
| Interest Rate | 4.00% | 4.00% | Oct/26 |
| Unemployment Rate | 4.10% | 4.20% | Oct/26 |
| Manufacturing PMI | 54.90 | 55.90 | Oct/26 |
| Services PMI | 56.10 | 58.80 | Oct/26 |
| Composite PMI | 55.90 | 58.40 | Oct/26 |
| Industrial Production | 2.20% | 1.60% | Sep/26 |
| Balance of Trade USD Billion | -105.0 | -106.0 | Sep/26 |
| Current Account to GDP % of GDP | -3.60 | -4.00 | Dec/25 |
| Government Budget % of GDP | -5.90 | -6.30 | Dec/25 |
| Government Debt to GDP % of GDP | 123.0 | 122.0 | Dec/25 |
| Foreign Exchange Reserves USD Million | 38,218 | 38,578 | Sep/26 |
| Currency | 103.0 | 103.0 | Nov/26 |
| Consumer Confidence | 51.00 | 48.00 | Nov/26 |
| Retail Sales MoM | 0.80% | 1.30% | Sep/26 |
| Non Farm Payrolls Thousand | 165.0 | 60.00 | Oct/26 |
| Bank Lending Rate | 7.00% | 7.00% | Oct/26 |
| Car Registrations Thousand | 206.0 | 209.0 | Oct/26 |
| Total Vehicle Sales Million | 15.50 | 16.00 | Oct/26 |
| Fiscal Expenditure USD Million | 773,004 | 584,872 | Oct/26 |
| Exports USD Billion | 322.0 | 316.0 | Sep/26 |
| Imports USD Billion | 427.0 | 421.0 | Sep/26 |
| Crude Oil Production BBL/D/1K | 13,965 | 13,946 | Aug/26 |
| Business Confidence | 55.50 | 54.50 | Oct/26 |
| Initial Jobless Claims Thousand | 200.0 | 191.0 | Nov/26 |
| Core PCE Price Index Annual Change | 3.10% | 3.00% | Sep/26 |
| Producer Prices Change | 6.30% | 5.60% | Sep/26 |
Doing well outside India and the USRanked on price trend, growth, real rates and external balance.
#1 · UAEUnited Arab Emiratesuptrend · current-account surplus
#3 · GREKGreeceuptrend
#4 · EWLSwitzerlanduptrend · near 52-week high · current-account surplus
#5 · EPOLPolanduptrend
#6 · EWDSwedenuptrend · current-account surplus
#7 · EWWMexicouptrend · high real rate
Country leaderboardClick a column to sort. Returns are for the US-listed country ETF in dollars.Learn the framework →
| # | Economy | 1M | 3M | 1Y | Growth | Next year | Inflation | Policy rate | Real rate | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | United Arab Emirates UAE | +8.1% | +7.5% | +10.0% | -3.9% | 7.7% | 2.0% | 3.90% | +1.9 pts | uptrend, current-account surplus |
| 2 | India INDA | +9.6% | +3.6% | −4.9% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 6.1% | 5.50% | −0.6 pts | uptrend, fast growth |
| 3 | Greece GREK | +1.7% | −1.6% | +26.1% | 1.8% | 1.8% | · | · | · | uptrend |
| 4 | Switzerland EWL | +7.3% | +2.6% | +12.2% | 1.9% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 0.00% | −1.5 pts | uptrend, near 52-week high, current-account surplus |
| 5 | Poland EPOL | −0.2% | −1.2% | +28.7% | 3.4% | 2.5% | 3.5% | 3.75% | +0.2 pts | uptrend |
| 6 | Sweden EWD | +3.9% | −0.5% | +9.0% | 2.5% | 2.2% | 0.9% | 2.00% | +1.1 pts | uptrend, current-account surplus |
| 7 | Mexico EWW | +6.0% | +2.9% | +15.2% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 3.8% | 6.25% | +2.5 pts | uptrend, high real rate |
| 8 | Spain EWP | +3.0% | −5.1% | +14.2% | 2.5% | 1.8% | 4.9% | · | · | uptrend, current-account surplus |
| 9 | United Kingdom EWU | +1.8% | −1.0% | +11.0% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 3.5% | 4.00% | +0.5 pts | uptrend |
| 10 | Hong Kong EWH | +5.7% | +3.5% | +1.2% | 3.8% | 2.8% | 1.9% | 4.25% | +2.4 pts | uptrend, high real rate, current-account surplus |
| 11 | Germany EWG | +3.9% | −2.6% | +3.8% | 1.3% | 1.1% | 2.8% | · | · | uptrend, current-account surplus |
| 12 | Canada EWC | +1.5% | −3.4% | +18.7% | 1.1% | 1.7% | 3.1% | 2.50% | −0.6 pts | uptrend |
| 13 | Qatar QAT | +12.3% | +0.1% | −8.3% | -15.6% | 18.8% | · | · | · | |
| 14 | Australia EWA | +2.4% | −1.5% | +12.6% | 1.9% | 1.6% | 4.3% | 4.85% | +0.5 pts | uptrend |
| 15 | United States SPY | −1.6% | −2.5% | +12.7% | 2.3% | 2.3% | 3.7% | 4.00% | +0.3 pts | uptrend, near 52-week high |
| 16 | Italy EWI | +3.9% | −7.9% | +8.0% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 5.4% | · | · | uptrend |
| 17 | France EWQ | +5.6% | −7.5% | −2.7% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 3.4% | · | · | |
| 18 | Singapore EWS | −2.9% | −10.1% | +7.1% | 5.0% | 3.0% | 2.2% | 1.65% | −0.6 pts | fast growth, current-account surplus |
| 19 | South Africa EZA | +3.3% | −3.2% | −3.6% | 1.0% | 1.3% | 4.5% | 7.25% | +2.8 pts | high real rate |
| 20 | Saudi Arabia KSA | +2.8% | −4.5% | −6.7% | -3.3% | 7.9% | 1.9% | 4.50% | +2.6 pts | high real rate |
| 21 | Netherlands EWN | 0.0% | −9.0% | +10.8% | 1.5% | 1.3% | 3.7% | · | · | current-account surplus |
| 22 | Japan EWJ | −4.6% | −7.1% | +10.2% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 2.1% | 1.25% | −0.9 pts | current-account surplus |
| 23 | Vietnam VNM | +3.8% | −0.8% | −2.3% | 8.4% | 7.5% | 5.1% | 4.50% | −0.6 pts | fast growth, current-account surplus |
| 24 | Taiwan EWT | −12.3% | −9.2% | +52.0% | 10.7% | 4.3% | · | · | · | uptrend, fast growth |
| 25 | Thailand THD | −5.0% | −7.1% | +14.5% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 3.9% | 1.00% | −2.9 pts | current-account surplus |
| 26 | Peru EPU | −8.9% | −8.8% | +29.4% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 5.3% | 4.50% | −0.8 pts | current-account surplus |
| 27 | Malaysia EWM | −2.3% | −6.3% | −0.9% | 5.2% | 4.6% | 1.8% | 2.75% | +0.9 pts | fast growth |
| 28 | Philippines EPHE | −0.7% | −13.5% | −6.4% | 3.4% | 5.1% | 7.8% | 5.50% | −2.3 pts | |
| 29 | China MCHI | −3.3% | −8.9% | −22.8% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 0.7% | 3.00% | +2.3 pts | fast growth, high real rate, current-account surplus |
| 30 | Chile ECH | −3.9% | −12.0% | −3.4% | 0.6% | 2.6% | 4.5% | 4.50% | 0.0 pts | |
| 31 | Brazil EWZ | −25.4% | −6.3% | −3.6% | 2.2% | 1.9% | 4.6% | 13.75% | +9.1 pts | high real rate |
| 32 | Turkey TUR | −4.7% | −19.1% | −2.2% | 2.7% | 3.6% | 29.8% | 36.00% | +6.2 pts | high real rate |
| 33 | South Korea EWY | −9.0% | −19.1% | +54.5% | 3.3% | 2.8% | 2.8% | 3.00% | +0.2 pts | current-account surplus |
| 34 | Argentina ARGT | −16.5% | −20.2% | −19.4% | 2.1% | 3.5% | 33.1% | 29.00% | −4.1 pts | |
| 35 | Indonesia EIDO | −10.3% | −16.9% | −42.7% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 3.2% | 5.75% | +2.5 pts | fast growth, high real rate |
Growth is the IMF projection for this year and next. Real rate is the policy rate less inflation.
Data calendarTimes in IST.
USDToday
19:00 IST
Core PPI m/m High impact
Forecast 0.3% · Previous 0.7%
19:00 IST
USDToday
19:00 IST
PPI m/m High impact
Forecast 0.4% · Previous 1.3%
19:00 IST