Track 05Module 4 of 611 sources
India macro: the RBI, the rupee, crude and external balances
Follow Indian monetary policy and the external accounts well enough to anticipate their effect on sectors.
Key ideas
- The RBI targets four percent consumer inflation with a band of two to six. Food is nearly half the basket, so the monsoon matters to policy.
- India imports most of its crude. A sustained rise in oil widens the current account deficit, weakens the rupee and lifts inflation.
- The RBI manages rupee volatility with its reserves. Watch reserves and forward positions as well as the spot rate.
- Banking system liquidity, surplus or deficit, moves short-term rates as much as the repo rate does.
Start hereWatch or read these first. They carry the core idea.
What is Balance of Payments and how does it affect the rupee? | Foreign exchange | RBI
Video · Business Standard · 3:34
The balance of payments and the rupee in under four minutes.
Oil Above $107: What It Means For India’s Economy | Experts Decode Crude Price Shock
Video · NDTV Profit · 17:55
What high crude prices do to India's economy and markets.
Report
Monetary Policy Report
Reserve Bank of India
The RBI's own projections and reasoning, twice a year. Read chapter one.
Data
CoreThe standard references. Work through them once the idea is clear.
Report
RBI Bulletin, with the monthly State of the Economy article
Reserve Bank of India
The monthly State of the Economy article is the best regular read on India macro.
Indianomics | World Bank Executive Director Neelkanth Mishra On India's Economy & Market Outlook
Video · CNBC-TV18 · 23:51
A leading economist on India's growth outlook.
Course
Varsity Module 8: Currency, Commodity and Government Securities
Zerodha Varsity
How currency, commodity and government bond markets work in India.
Data
CCIL: Indian money, G-sec and forex market data
CCIL
Money market, bond and currency data from the clearing corporation.
Data
Report
Go deeperResearch, primary sources and data for when you want the detail.
Report
Financial Stability Report
Reserve Bank of India
Twice-yearly stress tests and risks to the banking system.
Practice
After the next RBI decision, read the governor's statement. Write the stance, the inflation forecast and one sentence on what changed since the last meeting.
See it live
Where this leads
07.2 · Indian Market StructureWho is buying: foreign, domestic and retail flowsRead the daily flow numbers and know which of them carry information.06.2 · Geopolitics and MarketsEnergy, chokepoints and commoditiesKnow the physical routes and players behind oil, gas and metals, and what a disruption means for India.